Cisco Systems this week released Approaching the Zettabyte Era, a report on the growth of the Internet through 2012. The predictions for the World wide web alone are food for thought (annual traffic in 2012 will be 522 exabytes), but it should surprise no one that on the web video plays an enormous part in those predictions.
According to the report, 90% of all consumer traffic in 2012 will be video. That includes all forms — VoD, P2P, etc. Internet video alone (i.e. YouTube) will account for 50% of all consumer traffic. Even this day, World wide web video accounts for one-fourth of all consumer traffic.
Other bits of futuristic on the internet video awesomeness:
In 2012, Internet video will be almost 400 times the U.S. Internet backbone in 2000. It would take well over half a million years to watch all the on the internet video that will cross the network each month in 2012. Internet video will generate 10 exabytes per month in 2012.
The World wide web is (still) not collapsing under the weight of on the web video. Service providers are accelerating their infrastructure upgrade plans in response to the traffic growth. As a result of the upgrades, utilization levels of international World wide web backbones actually declined in 2007, as reported by Telegeography. In the near term, the most formidable challenge that online video poses for the World wide web backbone will be flash crowds rather than the overall volume of traffic.
YouTube is just the beginning. On the internet video will experience three waves of growth. Even with a six-fold increase between 2007 and 2012, current World wide web video growth is in its initial stages. World wide web video to the PC screen will soon be exceeded by a second wave arising from the delivery of World wide web video to the Television screen. Beyond 2015, a third wave of video traffic will result from video communications.
Non-Internet IP video will increase more rapidly than consumer World wide web. The twin trends of on-demand viewing and high-definition video are generating very rapid growth in cable video and IPTV traffic transported over IP in the metro. Consumer IPTV and CATV traffic will grow at a 65 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2007 and 2012, compared to a CAGR of 43 percent for consumer Internet traffic
Note that last bit. Personal intimidate people; on the internet video delivered through something other than what looks like a computer could well see faster adoption.
Cisco also identifies the advantages of various forms of on the internet video — from the interactivity of PCs to the entertainment value of of set-top boxes. There are several ways to get inside on the web video, and those many ways will make up most of your World wide web experience in 2012.
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